[MekongMike]

After reading the latest news from Bangkok in the web, I realised that things are not looking good for a diplomatic solution.
The smell of civil war is getting stronger...
If it comes to this... How will it affect Pattaya and other places in Thailand ?
I don´t believe that a full scale civil war would happen in Bangkok only...
The situation is bad, because if the Reds win, the Yellows, Multicolours or maybe a new group will continue the unrest.
If the Reds loose, they will probably continue the unrest.
I don´t see a solution at the moment and... as a Farang it doesn´t really matters to me which colour makes trouble at the moment.

But there are many simple questions... such as:
Will Thailand become a country divided like Sri Lanka ?
Will there be a full scale nationwide civil war, with the potencial to trigger the trouble in the south and at the Cambodian border ?
Will there come a diplomatic solution and a new concept for demogracy along with new laws for every aspect of Thai life ?
How would any of the above mentioned scenarios affect the nightlife and bar scene in Pattaya ?

[s1xer]

It is very difficult to comprehend what the average Thai's feel about this escalation of rioting etc. Most of those I have spoken too reject it totally and feel that it is wrong and portrays the Thai people in a bad light.

I have one very old friend, ex business man, who is an ardent supporter of Taksin and in his eyes he can do no wrong, he religiously follows Taksins blogs on the web and would love to have him back as the Prime Minster. Another business associate of mine is equally raptured by Taksin although maybe not as fervent supporter as my first friend, she admired his policies and feels that Thailand would be a better place and far more stable if he was to return. Neither of them condone the riots or the trouble being caused by the Red Shirts but certainly have sympathy for their cause.

On the other hand I also have friends and acquaintances who are totally against Taksin, his policies, his corruption and everything he stands for. They feel that Taksin has let down the Thai People and has caused more harm than good during his time as Prime Minister, they would dearly love for him to return to Thailand and spend some time in jail. These friends are also busness people and surprisingly are farmers and if we are to believe what has been said Taksin had more support amongst the farming community that the city.

I find it very difficult to have a discussion with the average Thai person on politics almost as difficult as discussing the Royal Family thus it is almost impossible to guage what the real people feel away from the hot heads and those bent on causing riots and trouble.

I hope that democracy will prevail but I have my doubts, I hope that it will not escalate into civil war and feel that the military will step in before reaching that point with another coup. Who will lead it though, is a problem.

Of course the another underlying factor amongst all this is the failing health of the King and what will happen if he dies and the Crown Prince takes over. Then I fear that Thailand could become a different place with even more problems.

Perhaps all I can add is Mai Pen lai

[s1xer]

The following article appeared in the Wall Street Journal Asia and I have copied it from another site, though it might be interesting to our readers. Incindently I knew Thanom Kittikachorn way back in the 60s.

After the recent bloodletting in the streets of Bangkok, it's unclear whether the Thai government is willing to start a serious dialogue with the "red shirt" forces that want a quick return to democracy. Last week, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya seemed to open the door a crack, advocating discussion of Thailand's political future, "even the taboo subject of the monarchy," for Thailand to become "a more open and democratic society." This is a welcome and overdue suggestion, especially from a politician known to be in the royalist camp.

While most Thais want to preserve the monarchy in some form, it is currently almost impossible to have a reasoned discussion about the king's role. That's because the country has one of the world's strictest lese majeste laws. Any criticism of any member of the royal family, no matter how mild, is punishable by up to 15 years in prison. The king himself has said that he should not be above criticism, but few legislators want to be seen as anything less than zealous in their defense of the monarchy.

The chilling effect of the law is compounded because anyone can lodge an accusation on the king's behalf. Even if eventually pardoned by the king, as often happens, those convicted can expect a considerable stretch in prison under difficult conditions. Not surprisingly, lese majeste charges have become a favorite way to sideline political rivals.

Lese majeste cases are usually brought at a rate of several per year, but the last couple of years have seen an uptick, no doubt related to the bitter political battle. Chiranuch Premchaiporn, moderator of a prominent political Web site, is among the latest victims. She was charged late last month for failing to delete comments critical of the monarchy quickly enough.

This would all count for less if King Bhumibol were a figurehead, but he has long played an active role in Thailand's politics. He has sometimes helped to resolve political disputes, say, by bringing in the two sides for a royal talking-to. The red-shirt protestors claim that the king's closest adviser, Gen. Prem Tinsulanonda, was a player in the 2006 military coup that overthrew Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and in retaliation they have targeted a bank and charity the general is associated with.

The link between the palace and the military goes back a long way. As anyone who has visited Thailand knows, King Bhumibol is a beloved figure, with his portrait displayed in most houses and public places. But this wasn't always so. When the king was crowned in 1946, the monarchy was at a low ebb following the abolition of the absolute monarchy in 1932. Military strongman Thanom Kittikachorn encouraged renewed public adoration of the king in the 1960s, in part as a way to consolidate his own power. King Bhumibol's moral character and good works have also added to the monarchy's prestige.

Despite having the longest history of democracy in Asia, Thailand has been run for long periods by a loose and evolving triumvirate of the military, nobility and established families of ethnic Chinese businessmen. Even under democratic governments, these groups have exerted strong influence behind the scenes. The present conflict is the result of long-festering resentment among rural and working-class Thais that their democratic voice has been ignored.

So why are some in the king's camp such as Foreign Minister Kasit suddenly raising the issue of lese majeste reform? King Bhumibol is 82 years old, so the issue of succession is ever present. Having failed to dislodge the pro-Thaksin red shirts from the barricades, government officials may fear that his successor will welcome back Mr. Thaksin from exile and support a different political order.

The specter of such upheaval may have the old guard thinking about their own ability to speak freely in the future. Whatever their motivation, the impulse to reform the lese majeste law is a healthy one. Thailand deserves an open debate about the future of the monarchy, and such a debate can't begin until Thais can discuss the issue without fear of arrest and prison.After the recent bloodletting in the streets of Bangkok, it's unclear whether the Thai government is willing to start a serious dialogue with the "red shirt" forces that want a quick return to democracy. Last week, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya seemed to open the door a crack, advocating discussion of Thailand's political future, "even the taboo subject of the monarchy," for Thailand to become "a more open and democratic society." This is a welcome and overdue suggestion, especially from a politician known to be in the royalist camp.

While most Thais want to preserve the monarchy in some form, it is currently almost impossible to have a reasoned discussion about the king's role. That's because the country has one of the world's strictest lese majeste laws. Any criticism of any member of the royal family, no matter how mild, is punishable by up to 15 years in prison. The king himself has said that he should not be above criticism, but few legislators want to be seen as anything less than zealous in their defense of the monarchy.

The chilling effect of the law is compounded because anyone can lodge an accusation on the king's behalf. Even if eventually pardoned by the king, as often happens, those convicted can expect a considerable stretch in prison under difficult conditions. Not surprisingly, lese majeste charges have become a favorite way to sideline political rivals.

Lese majeste cases are usually brought at a rate of several per year, but the last couple of years have seen an uptick, no doubt related to the bitter political battle. Chiranuch Premchaiporn, moderator of a prominent political Web site, is among the latest victims. She was charged late last month for failing to delete comments critical of the monarchy quickly enough.

This would all count for less if King Bhumibol were a figurehead, but he has long played an active role in Thailand's politics. He has sometimes helped to resolve political disputes, say, by bringing in the two sides for a royal talking-to. The red-shirt protestors claim that the king's closest adviser, Gen. Prem Tinsulanonda, was a player in the 2006 military coup that overthrew Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and in retaliation they have targeted a bank and charity the general is associated with.

The link between the palace and the military goes back a long way. As anyone who has visited Thailand knows, King Bhumibol is a beloved figure, with his portrait displayed in most houses and public places. But this wasn't always so. When the king was crowned in 1946, the monarchy was at a low ebb following the abolition of the absolute monarchy in 1932. Military strongman After the recent bloodletting in the streets of Bangkok, it's unclear whether the Thai government is willing to start a serious dialogue with the "red shirt" forces that want a quick return to democracy. Last week, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya seemed to open the door a crack, advocating discussion of Thailand's political future, "even the taboo subject of the monarchy," for Thailand to become "a more open and democratic society." This is a welcome and overdue suggestion, especially from a politician known to be in the royalist camp.

While most Thais want to preserve the monarchy in some form, it is currently almost impossible to have a reasoned discussion about the king's role. That's because the country has one of the world's strictest lese majeste laws. Any criticism of any member of the royal family, no matter how mild, is punishable by up to 15 years in prison. The king himself has said that he should not be above criticism, but few legislators want to be seen as anything less than zealous in their defense of the monarchy.

The chilling effect of the law is compounded because anyone can lodge an accusation on the king's behalf. Even if eventually pardoned by the king, as often happens, those convicted can expect a considerable stretch in prison under difficult conditions. Not surprisingly, lese majeste charges have become a favorite way to sideline political rivals.

Lese majeste cases are usually brought at a rate of several per year, but the last couple of years have seen an uptick, no doubt related to the bitter political battle. Chiranuch Premchaiporn, moderator of a prominent political Web site, is among the latest victims. She was charged late last month for failing to delete comments critical of the monarchy quickly enough.

This would all count for less if King Bhumibol were a figurehead, but he has long played an active role in Thailand's politics. He has sometimes helped to resolve political disputes, say, by bringing in the two sides for a royal talking-to. The red-shirt protestors claim that the king's closest adviser, Gen. Prem Tinsulanonda, was a player in the 2006 military coup that overthrew Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and in retaliation they have targeted a bank and charity the general is associated with.

The link between the palace and the military goes back a long way. As anyone who has visited Thailand knows, King Bhumibol is a beloved figure, with his portrait displayed in most houses and public places. But this wasn't always so. When the king was crowned in 1946, the monarchy was at a low ebb following the abolition of the absolute monarchy in 1932. Military strongman Thanom Kittikachorn encouraged renewed public adoration of the king in the 1960s, in part as a way to consolidate his own power. King Bhumibol's moral character and good works have also added to the monarchy's prestige.

Despite having the longest history of democracy in Asia, Thailand has been run for long periods by a loose and evolving triumvirate of the military, nobility and established families of ethnic Chinese businessmen. Even under democratic governments, these groups have exerted strong influence behind the scenes. The present conflict is the result of long-festering resentment among rural and working-class Thais that their democratic voice has been ignored.

So why are some in the king's camp such as Foreign Minister Kasit suddenly raising the issue of lese majeste reform? King Bhumibol is 82 years old, so the issue of succession is ever present. Having failed to dislodge the pro-Thaksin red shirts from the barricades, government officials may fear that his successor will welcome back Mr. Thaksin from exile and support a different political order.

The specter of such upheaval may have the old guard thinking about their own ability to speak freely in the future. Whatever their motivation, the impulse to reform the lese majeste law is a healthy one. Thailand deserves an open debate about the future of the monarchy, and such a debate can't begin until Thais can discuss the issue without fear of arrest and prison.encouraged renewed public adoration of the king in the 1960s, in part as a way to consolidate his own power. King Bhumibol's moral character and good works have also added to the monarchy's prestige.

Despite having the longest history of democracy in Asia, Thailand has been run for long periods by a loose and evolving triumvirate of the military, nobility and established families of ethnic Chinese businessmen. Even under democratic governments, these groups have exerted strong influence behind the scenes. The present conflict is the result of long-festering resentment among rural and working-class Thais that their democratic voice has been ignored.

So why are some in the king's camp such as Foreign Minister Kasit suddenly raising the issue of lese majeste reform? King Bhumibol is 82 years old, so the issue of succession is ever present. Having failed to dislodge the pro-Thaksin red shirts from the barricades, government officials may fear that his successor will welcome back Mr. Thaksin from exile and support a different political order.

The specter of such upheaval may have the old guard thinking about their own ability to speak freely in the future. Whatever their motivation, the impulse to reform the lese majeste law is a healthy one. Thailand deserves an open debate about the future of the monarchy, and such a debate can't begin until Thais can discuss the issue without fear of arrest and prison.

[s1xer]

If anyone is further interested try this article although it is rather long but quite interesting:
Red Shirts

[MekongMike]

Yo, s1xer !
Thank you for sharing those interesting links with us !
I think I can speak for all board members here, that we hope that the political crisis in LOS will be over soon, and that peace will come back to the country... for all Thai people of any colour... and that LOS will remain the wonderful country we all love as holiday destination.

[martinlanna]

MekongMike, on 04 May 2010 - 08:56 PM, said:

Yo, s1xer !
Thank you for sharing those interesting links with us !
I think I can speak for all board members here, that we hope that the political crisis in LOS will be over soon, and that peace will come back to the country... for all Thai people of any colour... and that LOS will remain the wonderful country we all love as holiday destination.

Don't bank on it Mike.....sure there will be elections sometime...but neither of the 2 major groups is going to relinquish power without a real fight...and as has been seen in the past...it ends up getting bloody.

[MekongMike]

I would have commented here again earlier, but I had some log in problems in the past few days which made it impossible to post in the forums.

First of all I fully agree with Martinlanna´s latest comment here.
It looks like things are about to get more worse than ever before.
Thai activists of both sides are talking about civil war already, even the main conflict is still located in Bangkok only.
Reading the news in the web gives me the feeling that I was right as I said that Thailand will never be the same anymore in a few years from now.
I remember a comment by a correspondent from Singapore on a news site who said that a lot of Thai people had lived in a fairy tale realm for too many years… and that they now have to face the consequences for the many years of dreaming away the problems of the poor…
Well, let´s leave aside the question if those correspondents and news reporters are right or not with their analysises and statements.
It´s a simple fact, that those Thais who suffer most from the turmoils are just ordinary people who never wanted to get involved in any protests or violent confrontations, but for some reasons must live and work in Bangkok.
For them, their whole world seems to end, because nobody can say if Thailand will return to normality again.

How easy life is for us Farangs !
The best thing we can do to protect ourselves is simply by not travelling to Thailand at all.
But hell, it´s only in Bangkok where the turmoils are.
So, easy doing… let´s give the capital a miss and let´s go down to Pattaya, where we belong to.
After a few weeks of fun, we can simply travel home and forget about the unrest for a couple of months.
Thailand is for holidays… Real life is back home !
But there are those of us, whose real life back home has become highly influenced by Thailand, because they found true love overthere.
My advice here is:
Get your T.lucks out of Thailand and to your homeland before the present unrest in Bangkok spreads out to become a countrywide civil war !
Later it might be impossible to get her overhere, because our governments might reject the first few thousands Thai refugees and political asylum seekers.
Being married with your T.luck will make it easier.
Make sure that your T.luck isn´t one of the red enthusiasts, because those should stay in Thailand to help rebuilding the country when the civil war is over !

But… huh, what am I talking here ?
Maybe my advice to get your T. lucks to your homelands might encourage some of those sad gullible bastards, who never had a girlfriend before, to take the bait that suddenly will be spreaded via e-mails by some bar girls to their former customers, in case the civil war will affect entire Thailand.
I see a new version of “sick buffalo e-mails” coming:

My dear…
You rememba me ? My name … Me work … Bar, now closed because of pompam in Thailand. You know Thailand not good now, have pompam too much.
My family has pompam, because we no colour, no money !
I read in newspaper you country give political asylum for Thai refugees… but lady must marry with Farang man.
Can you help me please ? Me no want stay Thailand… Me want come your country, because me always love you so much.
If you no want me… Me don´t know what to do.
Maybe you can send money me to help my family.
My brother had accident… my mother died and papa now in prison… Me no work because bar closed and no Farang comes Thailand… and buffalo is still very sick…

I bet that the number of cute Thai girls on the streets of European cities will increase, because most of their former customers will get their T.lucks out of Thailand, if the present turmoil becomes a nationwide civil war.
Good for me !
I would rather see beautyful Thai ladies on our streets than all those box heads and wogs we got in the past.
With regards to the fact that 90% of all Thai–Farang relationships never last longer than two years, the chances for me to end up in bed with a Thai girl here in Germany will get better soon.

About the Thailand of the future:
Well, if it really goes down the hill, I would definitely going to miss something… my favorite travel destination of the past few years, my favorite bars in Pattaya…
But what can we do ?
Getting laid from time to time was never depending on frequent trips to Thailand in my life.
So, a new travel destination has to be found soon.
Naaah… let´s wait and see !
The future is still wide open.

Keep watching the news !
Here is another… just interesting link:

http://www.notthenat...news.php?id=897